Sunday, November 29, 2009

Current overbought and oversold ETFs

Here are the RSI values of all 776 ETFs on the market. Here are the most overbought and oversold ETFs for both short-term (RSI-D), and long-term (RSI-M). What we notice is that there are a lot more overbought ETFs than oversold ones in both time horizons. Details below.

Top Oversold Short-Term (ordered by RSI-D):

(please click to enlarge)

Top Overbought Short-Term:

Note that there are too many overbought ETFs in the short term so we raised the cutoff RSI level to 75. There are 12 oversold ETFs, and 40 overbought (RSI over 70), ratio of 3.33.

The most overbought ETF is SHY, 1-3y treasury bonds, with an RSI of 90.08.

Top Oversold Long-Term (ordered by RSI-M):

Top Overbought Long-Term:

Note that again in the long term there are a lof more overbought ETFs than oversold ones. There are 23 oversold ETFs and 94 overbought (ratio of 4.08).

The most overbought ETF shown is PVI, with an RSI of 94.56, which is stratospheric. However, this ETF is designed to track the performance of a pool of short-term, tax-exempt, variable-rate demand obligations (VRDOs) issued by municipalities in the United States and its price barely moves and causes an impractical RSI. The most overbought ETF is then MBB, with an RSI of 90.55, another bond fund, Barclays Capital U.S. MBS Index.

You may receive technical analysis and alerts of these stocks, sent automatically to you, by entering the symbols in the Technical Trend Analysis Tool, (powered by INO).

As always, for information only, please do your own due dilligence.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

A look at the current best gold, silver, precious miner ETFs

Here is the current list of RSI values for gold, silver, and precious miners ETFs, ordered by RSI7 daily values, a short term indicator of oversold and overbought conditions.

The lists has 28 ETFS. 18 are overbought! Only 4 are oversold, and they are all bear ETFs (DGZ, GLL, DZZ, ZSL).

You may receive technical analysis and alerts of these stocks, sent automatically to you, by entering the symbols in the Technical Trend Analysis Tool, (powered by INO).

Please do your own due dilligence.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

A look at the current best Dividend ETFs

We computed the RSI values of all dividend ETFs in the U.S. and in Canada. Below is the table showing them sorted by RSI7- daily (short term)

(please click to enlarge)

There are NO dividend ETFs that are oversold in the short term. The closest are DFJ and DXJ, both on Japanese dividend stocks. Please refer to our recent posts on the state of Japan...

As for overbought, DOD and XDV.TO (Canada Select Div) lead the pack. The DOD is the "Dogs iof the Dow" (!), which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average Select Yield, which is the top 10 stocks with the highest indicated annual dividend yield. We are serious.

Note: You may receive technical analysis and alerts of these stocks, sent automatically to you, by entering the symbols in the Technical Trend Analysis Tool, (powered by INO).

Please do your own due dilligence.

Friday, November 20, 2009

Performance of Actively Managed ETFs Versus The Underlying Index

AlphaPro features a couple of actively managed ETFs. One of them tries to improve on the TSX60 index (which is tracked by the iShares XIU ETF). Please see the comparison chart this year:

(please click to enlarge).

The difference in ROI is quite significant:

XIU: +25.37%

HAX: 11.15%

Here is the comparison for the last 6 months:

Or for the last 3 months:

Or for the last 1 month:

Or even for the last 5 days:

The simple XIU vastly outferforms the 'actively managed' HAX on every time period.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

An Actively Managed ETF That Uses Seasonality

Don Vialoux and Brooke Thackray are the two "seasonality" analysts. They appear regularly on BNN. They look at patterns and trends during the year for several types of stocks. Now they have joined forces and will be managing a new seasonality ETF, run by AlphaPro, another Jovian company (the same one that manages leveraged ETFs in Canada). At least this one is not leveraged, but there are some unpleasant surprises in them.

The ETF will start trading Tuesday, symbol HAC in Toronto, and will invest in markets or sectors that typically rally in different parts of the year. The managers will no follow a buy-and-hold strategy. This part is great.

Don Vialoux who runs, and Brooke Thackray, is author of several books (Thackray's 2010 Investor's Guide), will provide technical analysis for the seasonal patterns.

Says the Globe and Mail: "Mr. Vialoux has said that average optimal date to enter North American equity markets is at the opening on Oct. 28, and the optimal time to leave is at the close on May 5. But that should be fine tuned each year with technical analysis, he contends.
On his Web site, he said the optimal entry point this year was on Nov. 5. Sectors that are attractive at this time of year include information technology, consumer discretion, industrials (sub sector transportation) and basic materials,"

The prospectus say that HAC will try to make money in all market cycles by tactically investing in stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies during periods that have historically demonstrated seasonal trends and/or will sit in significant amounts of cash. It will also do limited short-selling and unfurtunately will invest in ETFs that include the leveraged and inverse ETFs managed by affiliated company BetaPro Management Inc. This is very bad as these ETFs cannot be held for more than one day or investors in on average lose money. On top of this they generate commissions for BetaPro?? Read release.

Here is the worst part. The ETF has a management fee of 0.75%. However, AlphaPro will also get a performance fee that will be equal to 20% of the amount by which the performance exceeds the "high water mark" and outperforms the one year Government of Canada Treasury Bill rate (which is silly as it is near zero).

A nice idea that somehow went ashtray.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Leveraged ETFs: Top 25 Most Overbought and Top 25 Most Oversold

These are the top 25 most overbought and oversold leveraged ETFs on the market, sorted by RSI7 daily indicator.

Most oversold:

Most overbought:

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

776 ETFs: Top 25 ETFS To Buy and Top 25 ETFS Sell

Here are the top 25 most overvalued and most oversold ETFs on the market, out of the universe of 776 ETFs, sorted by RSI7 daily. This is a short term indicator.

Most oversold:

The average RSI of these is 26.79.

(please click to enlarge)

Most overbought (in reverse order):

The average RSI of these is 79.89.