Friday, April 30, 2010

New 3X ETFs by ProShares

ProShares is launching several new infamous +3x and -3x ETFs with exposure to the major U.S. indexes:
  • NASDAQ-100®
  • DJIA®
  • S&P500®
  • S&P MidCap 400
  • Russell 2000®
Investors should be aware that leveraged ETFs cause tremendous losses, hundreds of billions of dollars for whoever buys them.

3X ETFs (not 300%)

UltraPro ETFs seek to provide a return of 3x, the return of an index for a single day (before fees and expenses). And UltraPro Short ETFs seek to provide a return of -3x, the return of an index for a single day (before fees and expenses). Note that ProShares says that the returns are 300%, which is wrong. 300% is 4X). We hope their computers do better math.


For example:
  • On an up day, when the market gains 1%, a 3x leveraged fund is designed to gain about 3% and a -3x inverse fund is designed to lose about 3%.
  • But on a down day, when the market loses 1%, a 3x leveraged fund is designed to lose roughly 3% and a -3x inverse fund is designed to gain roughly 3%.
ProShares says (again, ignore the match errors):

"Most ProShares ETFs seek a return that is a multiple (e.g., 200%, -300%) of the return of an index or other benchmark (target) for a single day. Due to the compounding of daily returns, Ultra and Short ProShares' returns over periods other than one day will likely differ in amount and possibly direction from the target return for the same period. Investors should monitor holdings consistent with their strategies, as frequently as daily. For more on correlation, leverage and other risks, please read the prospectus."


Ticker symbols:

NASDAQ-100

UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ)

ProShares UltraPro QQQ seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to triple (300%) the daily performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index®.

UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ)

ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to triple (300%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index®.

Dow Jones Industrial AverageSM

UltraPro Dow30 (UDOW)

ProShares UltraPro Dow30 seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to triple (300%) the daily performance of the Dow Jones Industrial AverageSM Index.

UltraPro Short Dow30 (SDOW)

ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to triple (300%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones Industrial AverageSM Index.

S&P 500®

UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO)

ProShares UltraPro S&P500 seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to triple (300%) the daily performance of the S&P 500®.

UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU)

ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to triple (300%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the S&P 500®.

S&P MidCap 400TM Index

UltraPro MidCap400 (UMDD)

ProShares UltraPro MidCap400 seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to triple (300%) the daily performance of the S&P MidCap 400 Index.

UltraPro Short MidCap400 (SMDD)

ProShares UltraPro Short MidCap400 seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to triple (300%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the S&P MidCap 400 Index.

Russell 2000® Index

UltraPro Russell2000 (URTY)

ProShares UltraPro Russell2000 seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to triple (300%) the daily performance of the Russell 2000® Index.

UltraPro Short Russell2000 (SRTY)

ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to triple (300%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Russell 2000® Index.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Case-Shiller Index and a Home Builders ETF

House credit is about to expire in the US (unless it is extended again), causing many buyers to rush (as happened with cash for clunkers program).

The latest Case-Shiller index was released this week and it was up 0.6% in February, slightly weaker than estimates, and down from January. The index most major cities in the US and includes both number of sales and prices.

An ETF that tracks the building sector is the iShares ITB Home Construction. As you can see, it has recovered in the last couple of quarters or so:


To receive buy/sell alerts on ITB, please click this link.

ITB: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index. The Index measures the performance of the home construction sector of the United States equity market, and includes companies that are constructors of residential homes, including manufacturers of mobile and pre-fabricated homes.

Top holdings (name, symbol, percentage):

NVR, Inc. Common Stock NVR 10.50
PulteGroup, Inc. Common Stock PHM 10.03
D.R. Horton, Inc. Common Stock DHI 9.69
Lennar Corporation Class A Comm LEN 8.55
Toll Brothers Inc. Common Stock TOL 7.43
KB Home Common Stock KBH 4.98
M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. Common St MDC 4.73
Ryland Group, Inc. (The) Common RYL 4.45
Home Depot, Inc. (The) Common S HD 4.00
Meritage Homes Corporation Comm MTH 3.68

Friday, April 23, 2010

New silver and copper miners ETFs launched

Global X Funds has just launched a couple of mining ETFs: the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) and Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX), both with 0.65% expense ratio.

As the name suggests, SIL follows silver mining companies, tracking the Solactive Global Silver Miners Index, comprised of the largest and most liquid silver mining companies in the world.  The majority of holdings are Canadian based companies, also including companies from US, Mexico, Peru, and Russia. 

Largest holdings are Fresnillo, Industrias Penoles, Silver Wheaton, and Pan American Silver. 

COPX tracks the Solactive Global Copper Miners Index, which includes the largest and most liquid copper mining companies in the world.  COPX components are also based in Canada, plus Australia, UK, US, Mexico, China, Poland, Switzerland, and South Africa. 

Largest holdings are Freeport-McMoran, Xstrata, Grupo Mexico, and Southern Copper.  

The Solactive indexes are maintained by German company Structured Solutions AG and were built up by Structured Solutions in conjunction with the Stuttgart Stock Exchange - Germany's second largest .

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Oil has entered trading range

Oil has entered a trading range according to the latest INO analysis: watch video.(great educational video).


The favorite ETFs for oil are USO and UCO. We also track them live on this site.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

China FXI ETF: profit up or down

Chinese stocks have taken a tumble recently due to news of government tightening. FXI is the main Chinese ETF and it has dropped.

We track all Chinese ETFs live on this site.

Below are current straddles for FXI (click to receive automated alerts), for May.


These were calculated with the free  StraddlesCalc online tool. These straddles allow an investor to profit regardless of direction, as long as the stock moves the indicated amount.

Please do your own due diligence as options can cause 100% loss.

Friday, April 16, 2010

The Iceland volcano and an ETF for the airlines sell-off


The eruption of a volcano in Iceland caused (and is still causing) major disruptions in air traffic over northern Europe. Many airlines have been affected and the industry is losing hundreds of millions each day.

FAA (click to receive alerts) is an ETF that tracks airlines:


FAA dropped over 3% in the last two days. However, FAA is made mostly of American airlines, which are no that overly by European traffic.

Airline traffic has been going up (reported by GE) and business travel has been coming back lately.

These are the top holdings and percentsges of the ETF:

AMR Corporation Common Stock AMR 16.59
Delta Air Lines Inc. (New) Comm DAL 15.85
Continental Airlines, Inc. Comm CAL 15.17
Southwest Airlines Company Comm LUV 14.64
DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA-REG LHA 4.63

QUBSF 4.55
UAL Corporation UAUA 4.11

9202 3.91
Alaska Air Group, Inc. Common S ALK 3.87

C6L 3.82


Lufthansa is the only European company in the top holdings.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

DIA, XLF and TLT straddles to profit from sharp drops during earnings season cycles

Stock markets have taken a sharp drops around the middle of the month during earnings seasons. This was true in October 2009 and January 2010:



Will this pattern repeat itself? Since we are in the middle of earnings season again, this would be sometime next week. Investors should at least get some protection.

Below are straddles for the  DIA, XLF, and TLT ETFs for May (please click on each ETF link to receive alerts):



These were calculated with StraddlesCalc.

This is not advice. Options can cause 10% loss. Please do your due diligence.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

New Biotech ETFs, leveraged, ultralong and short

For investors looking for leverage and inverse ETFs in Biotech, ProShares has just announced a couple.

The company is launching two new ETFs with leveraged and inverse exposure to the biotechnology sector, seeking to provide 200% or -200% of the return of the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index:
  • Ultra Nasdaq Biotechnology (BIB)
  • UltraShort Nasdaq Biotechnology (BIS)
The expense ratio is high at 0.95%. Investors should be aware that leveraged ETFs are money losing in the long term.

BIB's top holdings:

AMGEN INC COM STK 9.59%
TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL ADR 7.78%
GILEAD SCIENCES USD0.001 7.08%
CELGENE CORP COM STK 6.15%
VERTEX PHARMACEUTICAL COM 3.78%
BIOGEN IDEC INC COM STK 2.91%
DENDREON CORP COM STK NPV 2.61%
PERRIGO CO COM STK NPV 2.61%
ALEXION PHARMACEUTICAL 2.53%
GENZYME CORP COM STK 2.42%


 BIS's holdings:


NBI SWAPS (12,007,790.78) - (12,627.42)
Net Other Assets / Cash - 5,992,293.67 5,992,293.67

Monday, April 12, 2010

Currencies remain in chaos: the best currency ETFs to buy or sell

Last week the Euro took a pounding again as the situation in Greece deteriorated. This weekend, a new $60B low interest loan was announced, and the Euro rebounded.

Currencies remain in chaos and will remain so as there is no easy fix to the current global problems. We track all currency ETFs live here.

Below are all currency ETFs orders by relative strength for short term and long term.

Short term, from most oversold to overbought:


Most oversold is JYF (Yen), followed by URR (ultra Euro). Most overbought are GBB and ICN (Indian Rupee). (Please click on links to received alerts)

Long term, from most oversold to overbought:


In the long term we also have URR as most oversold. Most overbought is CEW (Emerging markets),

Here are the ETFs and ETN names and their average trading volumes:

Thursday, April 8, 2010

A currency-hedged Chinese ETF

The Chinese Yuan and the Canadian dollar are all over he news recently.

Investors using Canadian dollars have lost 18% one year. One year ago, one Canadian dollar bought 5.60 Yuans, today it buys 6.80.

Today China has announced a policy shift in its currency (NY Times):
“The Chinese government is set to announce a revision of its currency policy in the coming days that will allow greater variation in the value of its currency combined with a small but immediate jump in its value against the dollar, people with knowledge of the consensus emerging in Beijing said Thursday.”

A currency hedged ETF is BMO"s ZCH (click for alerts). It has been around since January and it has indeed gone up about 8% since then.:



This ETF has a0.65% MER.

Major sectors:
  • 23% energy
  • 20 telecom
  • 20% IT

Returns of the top holdings:
  • China Mobile: +14%
  • China Life: +41%
  • Petro China: +46%
  • Baidu: +224%
Baidu of course benefiting from Google's troubles in China.

Saturday, April 3, 2010

Performance of all Chinese ETFs

We track all Chinese ETFs live on this site. The following table shows the performance since 2009 and 2008 (if the ETF existed back then, many of them are quite new).


(Please click to enlarge)

The top performer in 2010 are CZM and CQQQ. CZM is  a 3X ETF, so it should be avoided as its performances varies wildly from the day to day and its value will be eaten way just with time. CQQQ is a technology ETF.

The worst performers are CZI and FXP. CZI is a 3X ETF, and FXP is  a 2X ETF, both to stay away from. The worst performing 1X ETF is CHIE, the energy sector.