Thursday, November 11, 2010

Natural gas storage injection was +19Bcf, slightly below expectations of +24Bcf

While the amount injected was +19Bcf, slightly below the expected 24Bcf, natural gas storage still remains significantly higher than average, and actually outside (above) the 5-year average channel.

The current amount in storage is 3.84Tcf.


Will UNG rise or drop now? Well,  contango is still there. Jan 2011 prices are $4.24, while the current December contracts are priced at $4.06. That's a 4.4% differential.

Here are the current straddles. Current UNG price is non optimal, but it's doable since there's plenty of volume in UNG options (in the thousands).


If UNG moves 6.7%, those will become profitable. That means UNG above $6.20 or below $5.44. That's  a tough one.

Computed with StraddlesCalc.

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