Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Beware natural gas contango strikes; UNG finishes rollover

UNG has just finished rolling over its contracts, from June to July:


Here is the contango/backwardation situation today:


We still have contango, of 1.28%. This is on the low side, as it has been around 1.5/1.6% lately, but as noted above, the contracts just finished rolling over. We need to wati further in the month to see which way it is really going.

We have found that when there is backwardation, UNG rises, as was a rare case last last year. Please see our previous posts. UNG is on a slightly short term bullish pattern, higher low, higher highs, but the long term chart is still a disaster:


Long term:


What  a beauty... to have shorted UNG in 2008/2009: 12.5X return.

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