Thursday, January 7, 2010

The most attractive oil ETFS for 2010, to buy and to sell, for long term and short term

The following charts list the most oversold and overbought oil ETFs in the U.S market. It also includes gasoline ETFs. The lists are based on the current RSI values.

Long term:











The above are ordered from most oversold to most overbought. DUG is nearly oversold. The threshold of 30 is normally considered oversold, but this is arbitrary, it could well be 29 or 31. DUG is an ultra oil and gas ETF, leveraged 2X, and short (its counterpart on the long side is DIG).

There are no overbought ETFs for this time frame.


Short term:












In the short term it is a different story. The ETFs are either oversold (5) or overbought (11). Most oversold are DTO, SZO, and HOD.to, all ultra short. The first two are actually ETNs.

The most overbought are OIL (iPath crude oil return), USL (US 12-month oil fund), and UHN (heating oil fund). Interestingly, none of these three is an ultra. HOU.to and UCO are right behind though.

These are the ROIs since Jan 2009:




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