Monday, January 25, 2010

S&P500 current technical analysis - through SPY

SPY is the ETF that tracks the S&P500 500. It is the most heavily traded ETF.

SPYs current RSI 7 values are 25.15 on the daily, indicating that ii is oversold in the short term, 46.55 in the weekly, and 63.11 on the monthly. So it is still close to overbought on the long term.

SPY   
$109.21
25.15
46.55
63.11

Trade Triangles Alerts

Here are the current monthly and daily signals:



Clearly, the long term trend is still a buy, however, the short term is sell. Backtesting of the signals:



The ROI since October 2006 is +15.9%, compared with -7.65% of buy and gold.
You can run the tool yourself by using this link for a risk-free trial.

P/E, and Book Indicators:


Moving Averages:
  • The 20 and 50 day moving averages indicate that SPY may be in a bullish trend. This is because the 20 day moving average is above the 50 day moving average.
  • Last Wednesday, SPY closed below its 20 day moving average. This is generally considered to be an indication of a bearish trend.
Bollinger Bands:
  • SPY is trading below its lower Bollinger Band. Relative to recent price action, the stock is currently overextended to the downside and due for either a pause or retracement.
  • SPY has been relatively stable recently. This is evidenced by the width of its Bollinger Bands which are tighter than is normal due to the low volatility.


Stochastic Oscillator:
  • The Stochastic Oscillator is registering a bearish signal as the %K is below the %D. However, the oscillator has dropped below the critical value of 20 and SPY is now oversold.
On Balance Volume Indicator:
  • The On Balance Volume indicator (OBV) shows that longer term accumulation has given way to near term accumulation selling pressure.

 MACD:
  • The MACD is presently bearish because it is below the signal line, a 9 day exponential moving average, and shows that upward momentum has begun to wane. However, it is still above the critical level of 0 that defines when the underlying moving averages are bullish or bearish.


    Note: The last chart is Volume Rate of Change, which is not presently giving a clear signal.

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